Touchdown in life.

Fourth down, the moment of truth in American football: If the team covers the remaining yards, they keep possession of the ball and have four more attempts to push forward toward a touchdown victory. If they fail, it goes to the opposing team. But rather than take a risk, they can surrender the ball, kicking it back deep to put their opponent in a worse starting position, or they can attempt a long field goal. Which option will the team choose? For the fans, this is a moment of heightened tension.

Greg Starek, however, has long since calculated which move would offer the best odds of success. As Director of Football Analytics for the Indianapolis Colts, Starek analyzes these key game situations in advance. Together with his team, he provides the coaches with data-driven recommendations, such as when to go for a risky fourth down or when it’s smarter to pin the opponent down deep in their own territory. “In the end, it’s all about calculating probabilities,” Starek explains.

Before every game, he analyzes the opposing teams in depth: their preferred tactics in certain situations, their strengths and weaknesses and also recurring patterns. “Of course, we also need to know our own team inside out, but understanding your opponent even better gives you a decisive advantage,” says Starek. But Starek’s work extends even beyond game strategy. He develops injury-prevention models and supports management in selecting young players. His analyses help identify college talents who fit perfectly into the Colts’ system and who could contribute to the long-term success of the team.

Basel as a turning point

Starek’s path to the NFL was anything but predictable. Study abroad in Sweden proved pivotal: There, he developed an artificial inhibitor as part of a research project, setting the stage for his future work. The fact that the digitally designed molecule actually worked in the lab impressed him so much that he decided to pursue a career in computational biophysics.

While looking for a suitable research group, he came across Simon Bernèche, a professor in Basel. He wrote to him that very night. The reply was not long in coming. A few months later, Starek moved to Basel. When he arrived in Basel on August 1, Switzerland was celebrating its national holiday and Starek was celebrating the start of a new chapter in life. Here, he completed his master's and doctoral degrees, formed close friendships and laid the foundation for a career that would eventually lead him to the NFL. “Basel changed my life. Without that one email, I wouldn't be where I am today,” he explains.

Science meets football

After returning to the U.S., Starek began to question the traditional academic career path during his postdoc. One sentence from a course stuck in his mind: “Think about what you really love — what you hardly ever talk about in the lab.” For Starek, it was clear straightaway: This passion was football. He saw data science as an opportunity to combine his love of sports with science. Statistical analysis became the bridge between research and football.